![]() Russian victory could fuel further takeovers That would be a devastating blow for Ukraine. The outcome - all-out war between Russia and the West - would be the same.īut the alternative for Western allies of doing nothing to support Ukraine militarily would simply make Ukraine's defeat inevitable, enabling Russia to score the prize of locking its neighbour into facing east, rather than west. What if Moscow decides to view the downing of one of its aircraft by a missile gifted to the Ukrainians by America as akin to the US shooting it down directly? Russia will appreciate the distinction, is the hope.īut that, too, is a matter of choice and with that comes risk. The end result is not as effective as NATO directly protecting Ukraine's airspace but it is clearly helping Ukraine do what amounts to the same thing. ![]() The contributions include surface-to-air missiles and is set to include warplanes. "Every burning tank is what keeps us going," one Western official said. This involves sending in weapons and ammunition to bolster Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Ukraine conflict will last 'months if not years' Instead, individual allies, including the UK, the US and even - since Russia's invasion began - previously more pacifist Germany, are attempting to track a middle line between direct intervention and doing nothing. NATO has said that such a move - which would doubtless reduce Russia's ability to launch airstrikes against towns and cities, saving civilian lives - would involve Western warplanes going into combat with Russian jets, a move that could also trigger a much wider war. The same argument has been used by the West to reject increasingly anguished pleas by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine's skies. Such a move would effectively be a declaration of war with Russia from the moment the two sides start killing each other in direct combat. In terms of potential flashpoints that tip the world into armed confrontation, there are many.įor example, NATO allies have made it very clear that they will not send troops into Ukraine to help the Ukrainian armed forces defend themselves. How war between Russia and the West could break out ![]() It is a delicately-balanced equation and underlines the fragility and the greyness of the line between what is conventionally viewed as peace and war. The key question is whether the two sides have the restraint and/or desire to keep this wider conflict beneath the threshold of a full-blown military one. The two sides are locked in an economic and political war.īut the UK, US and other allies were only responding in the harshest way possible short of military confrontation to the Russian leader's aggression in Ukraine. World War Three has already begun, just not on the battlefield President Putin on Saturday described a decision by the West to impose unprecedented sanctions against his regime as "akin to declaring war". ![]()
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